How do we develop robust, large scale simulation models?

We are developing statistical tools which will improve estimation of parameter values, quantification of uncertainty, model comparison and more efficient computation for high CPU models. We will use techniques such as Bayesian inference, systematic sensitivity analysis, calibration/history matching, and statistical emulation.

What is happening to Scottish soils?

We are exploring potential approaches to integrate the wealth of Scottish soil monitoring data from different spatial scales and data collection programs (e.g. systematic surveys compared with citizen science data) into ecological models.

What are the key drivers of biodiversity in Scotland?

We are combining land use models with dynamic vegetation models to investigate the effects of land management strategies and decision making behaviour on biodiversity response under climate change.

How feasible are circular economy interventions?

A circular economy is a model of society in which the life cycle of existing materials is extended as much as possible, leading to minimum waste. We are developing causal inference models from primary and secondary data and agent-based models which focus on understanding the effects of potential interventions and policy scenarios in facilitating behaviour change that accelerates green recovery towards a circular economy. 

How can we manage antimicrobial resistance in agricultural systems?

We will use stochastic compartmental models to synthetize the processes of contamination, persistence, transmission, and exposure across the sections of the food chain. Depending on the nature of the empirical data available, we will adopt Bayesian or classical inference methods for parameter estimation and uncertainty.

Can we manage disease in livestock through changes to livestock trading?

We have developed novel generative models of livestock movements at national scale. We are using these to develop a digital twin of the Scottish cattle trade system and exploring: (i) potential disease control benefits of modifying how the trade needs of farms are met; (ii) interaction of trade with standard control measures; and (iii) how novel controls could be included in cattle health schemes.